The cable television upfront season is close upon us. So far it's been a time of feinting and posturing, as media buyers try to talk down the market and sellers try to create a sense of urgency to cut deals early.
    That will change this week, and perhaps as early as tomorrow.
    "You will see a lot of business being done this week," predicts John Rash, senior vice president for network negotiations at Campbell Mithune Esty in Minneapolis.
   Buyers and sellers both say they expect the deal-making to begin tomorrow, and, after a pause during the broadcast upfront later this month, to continue on well into June.
    Predictions for this year's cable upfront vary widely. Some media buyers are suggesting a gain of perhaps 10-20 percent over last year's record $3.7 billion in ad sales.
   But others see a much hotter season, with Discovery Channel's sales head Bill McGowen predicting a $5 billion upfront and the Myers Report predicting a 30 percent gain to $4.8 billion.
   "We're seeing signs of a very strong, active upfront," says a spokesman for the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau, "and we do expect a very significant increase in upfront commitments."
   The cable industry should see average CPM increases of 16-18 percent over last year, says Gig Barton, executive vice president for ad sales at Court TV. 
   "If you look at syndication, they averaged about a 12 percent increase, and cable usually does better than syndication."
   Rash agrees, though he says there are mitigating factors that could help keep the CPM decreases down a bit.
    "Macroeconomic conditions continue to suggest a healthy upfront that will be bigger than last year, but the increased number of cable outlets in which to place ads should temper CPM increases," he says.
    "There are factors, like the complexity of negotiations and the sheer number of networks, that will slow things down, too."
   Steven Grubbs, executive VP for television buying at BBDO Worldwide, while reluctant to discuss the upfronts, concedes that the sellers have an edge in this market. "Psychology is on the sellers' side of the table," he says.
   That psychology could spill over into the even bigger broadcast upfront too, which is likely to be record-setting. 
   Last year's broadcast upfront took in a record $7.5 billion, which was 53 percent of total television advertising spending. This year could see that figure rise by another 10 percent to $8.2 or $8.3 billion, experts say.
    The outlook for the cable and broadcast upfronts is based on the continuing strength of the U.S. economy, and on the nearly completed syndicated upfront which, while still tying up some deals, appears likely to top $2.6 billion, for an 8 percent increase over last year.
   One change in this year's cable upfront is that many more networks are making formal presentations to advertising clients and media shops, with networks like Court TV and TV Guide joining the list of presenters this season.
   "It's our busiest year so far," says Court TV 's Barton. "We did an upfront party for 600 to 700 media buyers in New York this year, and another in Los Angeles."
    In another change from last year, a buyer at a leading media shop predicts that instead of waiting until after the broadcast upfront, "a number of major agencies are going to register their cable budgets by tomorrow, this year." 
   That is, they'll be telegraphing to the cable nets firm figures for the money their clients intend to put into cable this season, the first step in the hard bargaining over actual ad buys and CPM rates.
   "That's earlier than in the past," she says, "because people are trying to take advantage of buying some inventory before the broadcast upfront kicks off."
   Sellers, anticipating this, are working to build up both a sense of elation and fear--fear that if you skip the chance to buy early you're going to pay through the nose later. It's called banging the drum.
     "There are a lot more rumors this year," reports Annette Cerbone, media director for broadcast and research at TBWA Chiat/Day. "I think this year the sellers have high expectations, and they're trying to increase the level of excitement by putting out feelers early. But there's posturing on both sides."
   This week both sides will begin to find out what's real, as the actual deals start to be struck.

-Dave Lindorff covers television and research for Media Life.


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