Lead sweeps in households and prime demo

By Kevin Downey

   The race for the February sweeps ratings crown is coming down to which network has the best regularly scheduled shows. 
    Coming into the sweeps, ABC seemed like a shoo-in to win another sweeps on the strength of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?"
      But early estimates show that NBC’s strategy of breathing new life into its regular programming continues to give ABC an unexpected challenge.
    Ratings through Sunday show that NBC has pulled ahead among adults 18-49 while ABC still has the edge in household ratings.
     Based on households, the peacock network now has a 9.4 /15 to ABC’s 9.6 /16. 
    Among adults 18-49, the demographic most prized by advertisers, NBC has the edge. Currently, NBC has a 5.9 rating to ABC’s 5.6.
    Neither NBC nor ABC is using much in the way of sweeps programming stunts. Instead, both networks are relying on their strongest regular programs.
    In ABC’s case, that is largely "Millionaire." 
   NBC, meanwhile, has the strength of its post-Seinfeld Thursday night lineup to keep it going.
    In fact, while last week’s movie spectacle, "Mary & Rhoda" helped ABC pull ahead in households, it actually brought them down among adults 18-49. Instead, that demographic is flocking to NBC’s Thursday night.
    In anticipation of star Kellie Martin’s departure next week from "ER," NBC’s powerhouse medical series had its best numbers this week since its season premier in 1999. The show brought in a sizable 31.3 million viewers and won the night.
     Proving that regular programming is the way to go this sweeps, ABC’s "Millionaire," easily knocked back-to-back episodes of NBC’s Frasier, one a repeat. "Millionaire" brought in 28 million viewers that night.
    The strategy has also worked for Fox. On Sunday, "The Simpsons" had its best night this season. The strong showing resulted from a regular cast member being killed off.
    But, while NBC and ABC duke it out, both CBS and Fox are relying heavily on stunt programming. Both networks have put a lot of stock into scandals – both are airing JonBenet Ramsey movies, for example – but, the strategy has yet to result in great numbers.
    For the sweeps through Sunday, CBS has a 8.8 /14 household rating / share and a 3.6 adults 18-49 rating. 
   Fox, meanwhile, going after the easily-titillated, has a disappointing 6.3 /10 households and 4.5 a18-49 rating, despite shows such as "TV Guide Behind the Sitcom Scandals."
    Now in its 13^th day, the February sweeps are shaping up for an NBC and ABC brawl. But the big story is the strategy used by NBC and ABC to capture viewers. The old, tried and true programming stunts of the past do not seem to be working this year, evidenced by CBS and Fox. Perhaps viewers, savvy to the programming hype, have opted out of the sweeps game and are giving the networks a message to stick with the programs they like.
    While some of the biggest-hyped sweeps programs, like the Grammy’s on CBS, might yet shake up the ratings race, it seems like a battle for the best programs. And NBC and ABC have a lock on that this sweeps go around.

-Kevin Downey covers television and programming from Los Angeles.